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Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer Part 1 – AFC East

Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer Part 1 – AFC East

During this 8-part divisional series, I utilize the ADP from the RedZone 96 league startup drafts to determine 2 guys, I am buying, 2 I’m selling, and my flyer off each team.  Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP.

Part 1: AFC East 

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New England Patriots 

Two players, I am buying; 

Chris Hogan – Overall ADP 133 WR 61

On the surface, Chris Hogan had a down year last season.  Limited to 9 games, his overall numbers landed him as the 63rd highest scoring WR.  The transition into a new offense is likely the hardest for a WR of any of the skilled positions.  They need time with their QB to develop the chemistry that makes that QB feel comfortable targeting the wideout.  Barring injury this season, Chris Hogan is prime to reward those that drafted him as the 133rd overall selection and as the 61st WR.  The 2017 numbers projected over 16 games would have landed Hogan with 61 catches, 779 yards and 9 touchdowns (192.9 points).  Those 192.9 points would have seen Hogan finish as the 23rd highest scoring WR, slightly ahead of JuJu Smith-Shuster.  I feel that another season with Tom Brady, in an offense without Julien Edelman again (for the first 4 games), only increases the Patriots need to target Hogan.  Chris Hogan has WR2 potential in this offense thus making him a buy at his current WR5 ADP.

Jordan Matthews – Overall ADP 140 WR 67

Jordan Matthews, in my opinion, benefits the most from the Julian Edelman suspension.  Matthews has basically been a tire fire since what looked to be a breakout season in 2015.  He regressed in 2016 and was a complete flop in the 10 games with the Bills last season.  Without the Edelman suspension, there is a serious argument to be made that he won’t crack the Patriots opening day roster.  Now, as mentioned above the transition into a new offense for a WR isn’t easy.  The timing of the Edelman suspension helps.  Matthews should see more work and attention paid to him as a result in offseason work and into training camp.  I am not looking for much from Matthews but I do see him returning value based on his current situation.  Matthews can contribute as a low-end WR3 early this season.  If Matthews starts off well, he would likely transition into a mid-season sell once Edelman returns.

Two players, I am selling;

Tom Brady – Overall ADP 137, QB 14

Last season’s MVP at the age of 40 and likely the best at his position all time is a sell for me.  Selected at 137 (QB 14), is just too high of a price to pay.  I do feel that Brady can deliver once again this season at a mid to high QB1.  Why am I selling? It’s all about the price.  I would be much more comfortable waiting on my QB and selecting Ben Roethlisberger (QB 24 ADP 180) or Philip Rivers (QB26 ADP 194).  Ben has top 10 QB upside in 2018 and Rivers top 15.  There is a complementary talent to your roster available at 137 that when paired with Roethlisberger or Rivers later likely makes your team overall stronger for this year and years to come.

Sony Michel – Overall ADP 41, RB 16

Before you stop reading and start to hate me, this sell is a player I like and one that I am targeting in the rookie drafts.  In a startup at this ADP, I am likely going to sell.  Michel has the ability to take over this backfield, it likely won’t happen this year, but it’s going to happen.  I am going to capitalize on the player hype and sell for a player that helps me now and a 2019 pick or prospect that helps me in the future.

Take the flyer;

Braxton Berrios – Overall ADP 256, WR 110

Drafted by the Patriots out of Miami in the 6th round 210th overall, Berrios was likely selected to be a Danny Amendola replacement.  5’8 184lbs Berrios plays well in the slot and is a decent punt returner if need be.  In light of the Edelman suspension, he might end up being Edelman’s replacement early on in this offense.  Malcolm Mitchell can’t seem to get onto the field and Phillip Dorsett is far from impressive, take the flyer on this kid.  Coming off the board in the 21st round of the RedZone startups Braxton Berrios is an amazing value.

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Buffalo Bills

Two players, I am buying; 

Kelvin Benjamin – Overall ADP 124 WR 56

Finding players off this Buffalo Bills roster to buy is not a task to take lightly.  Drafted in a WR4 position, Benjamin should return mid to low end WR3 results this season.  Basically, one of only a couple of WR with a pulse on the Bills roster, Benjamin is bound to be the #1 targeted WR in their offense. If Benjamin can stay healthy I believe he will see an upwards of 100-110 targets and return good value in regard to his ADP in 2018.

Charles Clay – Overall ADP 228 TE 31

Drafted as the 31st TE in the RedZone 96 startup drafts, Charles Clay has the potential to exceed that value.  Regardless if it is AJ McCarron or Josh Allen under center this year for the Bills, I like the safety net that Clay provides.  A favorite target of Tyrod Taylor while in Buffalo, Clay is a big man with good hands, that runs decent routes.  He will receive the quick out pass and be a star in garbage time this season.  Clay has the potential to crack the Top 24 at TE this season.

Two players, I am selling;

LeSean McCoy – Overall ADP 56 RB 23

Eventually, this talented back will break down.  I am betting on that happening at some point this season.  Drafted as an RB2, McCoy will struggle to bring that return on investment.  As noted, the passing game is weak, and we are looking at a situation where the starting QB is either a first-time starter, a rookie, or Nathan Peterman (God helps us).  The box will be stacked all day long and LeSean will be battered and beaten each and every Sunday.  29-year-old RB’s with over 2600 career touches don’t typically get better. The only saving grace for McCoy this season is his pass catching abilities.  The volume will be there again in 2018, hopefully, McCoy will hold up to take advantage.  I am betting he does not.

Josh Allen – Overall ADP 192 QB 25

Selling a rookie QB in a dynasty format before he has taken a snap might seem a little extreme. Maybe it is, however at QB25, I’m selling.  The landing spot for this rookie QB arguably couldn’t be worse.  Not much talent to work within the passing game, an aging starting RB, and an offensive line that nobody is excited about.  If there is any hype surrounding Allen, I’d cash in on it now.  Allen may have a good career in the NFL, and I hope he does. One thing I know is it won’t be coming anytime soon.  I prefer Rivers(QB26), Alex Smith(QB27), Mason Rudolph(QB29).

Take the flyer;

Jeremy Kerley – Undrafted

The value won’t get any better for a WR that quite possibly is the team’s 3rd WR.  I get that this player’s best days are long gone and that the offense he finds himself in a dumpster fire, but hey it’s called take the flyer for a reason, and garbage time points count.

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Miami Dolphins

Two players, I am buying; 

Albert Wilson –  Overall ADP 215 WR 89

There is something I like about Albert Wilson something I like a lot.  He showed flashes of his talent in Kansas City and should get plenty of opportunity in Miami to show it even more.  Jarvis Landry was targeted 161 times in this offense and those targets need to go somewhere.  I am betting on Wilson being a big benefactor of those targets in 2018.  Being drafted as a WR 7, I am certain that Wilson can return WR4 numbers as his floor this season.

Danny Amendola – Overall ADP 250 WR 106

If Amendola can stay healthy then he will be a steal at his current ADP. I realize that over the history of his career staying healthy and on the field, has not been one of Amendola’s attributes but at this price, regardless of his age I would look to buy.  The upside is well worth the investment at pick 250.

Two players, I am selling;

DeVante Parker – Overall ADP 67 WR31

How many years have I been hearing that this is the one?  This is the year that DeVante Parker breaks out and shows he’s a top 24 WR!  The reality is Devante Parker is an OTA MVP. Once the lights come on for the 16-game regular season that description changes dramatically.  Heading into his 4th season, Parker has yet to top 60 catches or 750 yards.  He struggles to stay healthy and quite frankly looks like a player who needs to crank up his give-a-crap meter.  Drafted as a WR3 I feel that DeVante Parker will continue to disappoint and if you can sell at this value you’ll be happy you did.

Kenyan Drake – Overall ADP 58 RB 24

I like Drake and I feel he could be a valuable member of your dynasty roster now and in the years to come.  It appeared at times last season that Adam Gase struggled with his love/hate for this RB and it wasn’t until he was out of options did we see Drake get the bulk of the work.  With old man Frank Gore as well as young upstart Kalen Bellage, in the mix, I feel that the workload Drake will receive may disappoint his owners. Being drafted at RB 24, I am selling.  I would much prefer guys like Alex Collins (RB30), Dion Lewis (RB31), and Aaron Jones (RB33).

Take the flyer;

Frank Gore – Overall ADP 267 RB 86

I have never been a fan of selecting an aging running back who is clearly on the downside of his career, in a Dynasty startup draft.  With Gore, I find myself oddly intrigued this season.  Adding a RB at this stage of the draft that can be the goal line guy is worth the risk.  I wouldn’t lean on Gore too much more than a plug and play bye week replacement but at RB86 the value is there.

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New York Jets

Two players, I am buying; 

ArDarius Stewart – Overall ADP 264 WR115

There are a lot of so, so WR hanging around with the Jets these days.  Of those guys, I like the athletic abilities and upside of ArDarius Stewart.  The second-year WR disappointed in his rookie season and if he can stick on the roster may very well take a step forward.  Not a buy I would aggressively pursue, but one at this price that I am interested in.

Quincy Enunwa – Overall ADP 181 WR 78

When a player is coming back off a lost season due to injury it is always uncertain.  With Enunwa, he has shown in the past that he has the ability to be a relevant WR in this league.  If he can come back and stay healthy I like this players value.  Combined the uncertainty with Robby Anderson, and I like the value even more.

Two players, I’m selling;

Isaiah Crowell – Overall ADP 103 RB40

Crowell was targeted to be a break out RB last season with the Browns.  Well, that didn’t happen and now he finds himself in NY as a member of the Jets in a good situation.  Crowell will start the season as the #1 back with the Jets.  I am looking to sell on the perceived value.  Bilal Powell will eat into his workload as will Elijah McGuire.  When all is said and done this season I see a RB by committee situation brewing in NY.  Sell now while the value is as likely as high as it will get.

Robby Anderson – Overall ADP 114 WR 53

Clearly the most talented WR on his team, Robby Anderson has WR2 floor potential. He also has a boatload of off-field issues that are likely going to catch up with him and drive his value down.  I would look to get out now and sell while there is still some value to be had.

Take the flyer; 

Teddy Bridgewater Overall ADP 384 QB 49

This one is mainly for those in 2 QB or Super-flex leagues.  Teddy apparently is looking good on the field and moving around like he did when he was starting in Minnesota.  Poised to take a step forward prior to the knee injury, I would take the flyer on Teddy as my QB 4/5 in a Super-flex.  It’s possible Bridgewater never sees a snap with the Jets and may just be that player brought into an organization that suffers an injury to their QB.  Going off the board at 384, you could do a lot worse.

About The Author

Rob Sullivan

Started playing fantasy in a work league in 2007 and have been an active player ever since, engaging in multiple leagues annually, including a league I’ve commissioned since 2012. My passion for fantasy was triggered after entering my first dynasty league in 2016; building a team retained for years to come became an obsession. As an active waiver wire participant, who loves the art of the deal as much as I do, dynasty is the perfect match. Dynasty humbles you, teaches you something each and every season, and I just can’t get enough.