Jarvis Landry WR1 – Prove Me Wrong
I have had the pleasure of debating Jarvis Landy with several members of Dynasty RedZone Community this week.
1st poll question: Will Landry’s production, increase, decrease, or remain the same in 2018.
Decrease – 39
Stays The Same – 3
Increases – 3
I feel that Jarvis will stay the same, with a potential slight increase.
Jarvis for me and I do not feel that it will be that close
3rd poll question: Who leads the Browns in fantasy points this season;
Landry – 31
Gordon – 12
Duke – 2
Jarvis once again for me.
Landry has a lot of factors to deal with that many in the Dynasty world feel will lead to a regression this season. Last season in Miami he had 161 targets and turned them into 260 fantasy points and a finish at WR5. In 2018 Landry will finish within the top 12 WR and here is why;
Consistently Proven Results
- Landry has averaged 235 fantasy points a season during his four-year career.
- The lowest production of his career was his rookie season where he scored 181 points. He didn’t start that season until week 6. Landry finished that season as WR31.
- There have been 245 WR drafted between 2010-2017; Landry’s rookie season ranks 16th. The following three seasons he finished; WR9, WR13, and WR5.
- Of that 245 drafted WR, 110 have played 4 seasons or more. The 235 points Landry has averaged over his 4-year career ranks 4th.
- A.J. Green, Odell Beckham Jr. & Mike Evans are the only players in the last 8 seasons that have averaged more points in their first 4 seasons than Landry.
- Jarvis Landry holds the record for the most receptions in the first four seasons of an NFL Career.
- Over the 4-year span of Landry’s career. He has scored 943.3 fantasy points on 426 touches (2.21/touch).
During the course of Jarvis Landry’s four-year career, he has never missed a game. Anyone who witnessed the first episode of Hard Knocks this season will understand why. At 5’11 196 lbs., Landry is as tough as they come and can be counted on week in week out. Compared to many of the well know WR1 in the NFL, Landry’s games played is a difference maker.
Over the course of Landry’s career, he has a catch rate of 70%. The Dolphins as a team over that 4-year span had a team catch rate of 64%. When backing out Landry’s targets and catches the Dolphins drop to 61%. He has been targeted 570 times and has caught 400 of them. Simple put, Landry was the Dolphins most reliable receiver, and in Cleveland, he will remain the same.
- Landry can catch any pass at any location on the field. In 2017 Jarvis found himself as the inside receiver for 39.3% of his receptions.
- Landry saw the highest rate of man coverage on the dolphins in 2017. 56.3% of his catches came against man coverage. The amount of man coverage that Jarvis will face as a member of the Browns will likely remain high.
- His ability to move all over the field is a challenge to opposing team defenses. Landry had 66 receptions in the middle of the field, 23 on the right and 23 on the left, in 2017. Primarily a slot receiver, he can beat you on either side of the field as well. The Browns are reportedly lining him up all over the field thus far during camp.
Jay Cutler was signed in Miami last season and the gunslinger was earmarked to elevate the games of wide-outs DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry would suffer as a result. When the dust settled on the end of the 2017 season, Landry turned his 161 targets into, 112 receptions, 987 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Entering the 2018 season in Cleveland, Landry will have Tyrod Taylor targeting him early, and often. Tyrod is the perfect quarterback for Landry. According to NFL Next Gen Stats during his time in Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor had a quarterback rating within league average on balls thrown under 20 yards and a below average rating on balls thrown 20+ yards. Where Tyrod excels is in the middle of the field on passes thrown less than 20 yards. He owns an above league average quarterback ranking of 120.9. Expect a lot of Tyrod Taylor to Jarvis Landry in Tyrod’s sweet spot this season.
The main argument for regression is there are too many mouths to feed on the Browns. Opposers to Landry WR1 will tell you that; there are too many options that will limit Landry’s targets and overall fantasy production. They will also claim that in Miami there was no one else to throw the football too.</P
- In the 4 seasons that Landry was in Miami, he was targeted 570 times.
- The remainder of WR, TE, & RB were targeted 1692 times. Landry received 25% of the Dolphins targets.
- The supporting cast in Cleveland is impressive. Josh Gordon (assuming he plays 16 games this year), Antonio Callaway (assuming he isn’t suspended), David Njoku, Duke Johnson, Carlos Hyde, and Nick Chubb. The number of weapons available in Cleveland will certainly have an impact on Jarvis.
- Predicting that Landry receives 25% of the team’s targets is very reasonable this season. I see him exceeding that this season. I project Landry with all the instability in Cleveland to start the season will receive in the range of 155 targets in 2018.
- Projecting a 70% catch rate, pencil Jarvis in for 109 catches.
- Jarvis will maintain his 10.1 yards/catch (at minimum) this season, projecting him for 1101 yards.
- Landry has 120 career rushing yards, I project he will gain 50 yards on the ground in 2018.
- Jarvis Landry excelled around the goal line for the first time in his career last season. He proved that he can get open and create space regardless of where they are on the field. This led to career-high 9 TD receptions in 2017. I do feel that his supporting cast will impact his TD catches. To be conservative I will give Jarvis 7.
- From 2010-2017 the average fantasy points scored by WR12 is 248.9.
- I project Jarvis Landry to score 266 fantasy points in his inaugural season in Cleveland.
Since 2010 the 12th highest scoring WR has averaged 249 fantasy points. Jarvis Landry won’t be the 5th highest scoring WR again this season, but he will comfortably find himself within the top 12 and remain a WR1.