Week 9 Sells – Tyler Lockett, Kyle Rudolph, and Joe Flacco
Hello everyone, I hope all is well. Welcome back.
OK let’s jump right in.
My first sell this week is;
Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks. Lockett on the surface is having a solid season in Seattle. My desire to sell Lockett is when you dig deeper into his production and the Seahawks offense as a whole, you discover numbers that elevate his value and are not sustainable. Lockett has played in all seven of Seattle’s game this season. During those 7 contests, he has been targeted 34 times and has 25 catches for 394 yards. 6 of those receptions have been for touchdowns. A 24% TD/reception is not a total that can be sustained throughout the course of a season. In addition, the Seahawks offense, in general, is achieving at a rate that in my opinion can’t continue. Russell Wilson has attempted 182 passes in 7 games this season. 26 passes per game in today’s NFL is quite low. Of those 182 passes, Wilson has completed 16 for a TD. Wilson is averaging a TD pass once every 11.3 attempts another unsustainable number. Lockett is currently WR24 with 103.5, 36 points or 34% of his production has come via the TD. Doug Baldwin has yet to get going David Moore is starting to emerge, and Ed Dickson has returned from injury. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in an offense that averages 26 attempts a week. Tyler Lockett is a prime candidate for TD regression and when that happens his value will plummet. Sell Locket now while he is perceived to be a WR2.
Second Sell of the week;
Kyle Rudolph. Now a few weeks back I suggested that you should sell Eric Ebron. The key part of that sell as well as this one is you must have a variable option at TE in order to make this work. Rudolph was a target of mine to acquire this year. I believed that the Vikings a team I know well would be a run first and often team, that would be leading most weeks and leaning on a top-ranked defense. Well, the reality is Dalvin Cook has been a bust, the defense isn’t nearly as advertised and they have not been leading as much as this Vikings fan would have hoped for. The Vikings, in fact, a pass heavy team and Kirk Cousins is leaning on his top WR’s heavily. Adams Thielen and Stefon Diggs have combined for 181 or 53% of Kirk Cousins 341 targets this season. Kyle Rudolph has received 43 targets. The most attractive piece of Rudolph’s game coming into 2018 was his RedZone production. Rudolph has always been a TD defendant TE. In 8 games this season Rudy has 8 RedZone targets, 3 of which have receptions, 2 for a touchdown. Thielen is 13/9/3 and Diggs is 8/6/2. Thru the first four weeks of 2018, Rudolph was TE 6 averaging 12.2 points per game. In the past 4 games, he is TE16 and his average points per game have dropped to 6.8. Bottom line Kyle Rudolph is becoming a forgotten man in the Vikings offense. Sell Rudy now to a TE needy team in your league and plug some holes in other areas of your lineup.
Third Sell of the week;
Joe Flacco. Flacco started off this season producing in the Ravens offense. Through the first four weeks of 2018 Flacco was averaging 19.7 points per game and in the last 4 Weeks, he is averaging 13.9 points per game. Selling a QB can be a tricky thing especially in a 1 QB league. The Ravens are running more than earlier in the season and rookie Lamar Jackson is starting to slowly take more and more snaps in this offense. This week there are 6 teams on bye and key QB’s such as Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck, and Andy Dalton won’t be available. If you own Flacco you likely own him as your 2nd QB. Target one of the teams in a QB pinch and move Flacco now as he has a plus matchup this week vs Pittsburgh. Not all sells will bring a king’s ransom. If you make enough small Davy deals like this one, you’ll stockpile assets that can bring you a bigger fish in the future.
That’s it for this week, good luck in week 9.